The Tomorrow Bets Worth Making: How to Spot and Prioritize Partnership Opportunities That Don’t Exist Yet
A practical framework for identifying and ranking the “Track 2” partnerships that could define your next growth phase
Yesterday, I introduced the Two-Speed Mindset — the idea that the best partnership leaders run “Today” partnerships (Performance Zone) and “Tomorrow” partnerships (Incubation Zone) simultaneously, embedding both speeds into every relationship.
The most common question I got: “Okay, but which Tomorrow bets should we actually be making?”
Fair question. You can’t chase every shiny possibility, and most partnership teams are already stretched thin on their Today deals. You need a systematic way to identify and prioritize the Tomorrow opportunities worth your limited bandwidth.
Future Bets: What’s Changing That Could Reshape Partnerships?
The key question isn’t “What partnerships should we do?” It’s:
“What dynamics are changing that will fundamentally alter how commerce gets done?”
Here are the shifts I’m watching most closely — along with why they matter:
AI-Native Shopping Experiences – Discovery, evaluation, and purchasing happen inside a single conversational interface. When someone asks an AI assistant “what’s the best camera for travel photography under $800?” and completes the purchase in the same conversation — you want your payment rails there.
Creator Economy Platforms – Financing unlocks entirely new income streams and business models. The YouTuber with 2M subscribers launching a course, or the TikTok creator needing inventory financing for their dropshipping business.
Cross-Border Commerce in Emerging Markets – Maturing regulatory frameworks in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa are opening previously inaccessible audiences. Getting embedded early in these payment infrastructure plays could be massive.
Gigification of White-Collar Work – As fractional executives, project-based specialists, and on-demand talent marketplaces expand, what partnerships will serve this new labor economy? Think payment rails for gig consultants or financing for freelancer equipment.
B2B Software Buying Disruption – Will CRM and ERP sales be disintermediated by AI tools that source, vet, and integrate software automatically? If buying shifts from “demo → trial → negotiate → sign” to “query → auto-provision,” where does that leave traditional B2B partnerships?
Fragmentation of the SaaS Ecosystem – As microtools proliferate, what infrastructure partners will stitch together payments, compliance, and analytics across dozens of point solutions?
The Size of Prize vs. Likelihood of Success Matrix
Even with a Tomorrow mindset, you can’t chase every possible future partnership. One way to prioritize is using the classic strategy consulting framework: Size of Prize vs. Likelihood of Success.
Size of Prize = Potential revenue, market share, or strategic advantage if the bet succeeds
Likelihood of Success = Confidence in timing, partner execution, and your ability to win
Here’s how it looks with current examples:
Quadrant Guidance
Quick Wins (High Size, High Likelihood) – Prioritize early pilots and scale fast.
Example: Cross-border commerce in proven regulated marketsBig Swings (High Size, Low Likelihood) – Place lightweight bets to learn and position early.
Example: Immersive commerce (VR/AR retail experiences)Safe Plays (Low Size, High Likelihood) – Use to complement larger initiatives, but keep investment modest.
Example: Niche SaaS integrations with small TAMNice-to-Have (Low Size, Low Likelihood) – Avoid or cut quickly.
Example: Experimental pilots with no clear revenue path
How to Apply This Framework
Map your current Tomorrow bets across the four quadrants — be brutally honest about both dimensions.
Load up on Quick Wins while they’re still available.
Place 2–3 Big Swings with minimal upfront investment until you see tipping signals.
Use Safe Plays strategically to fill gaps, not as core bets.
Ruthlessly cut Nice-to-Haves that drain time without impact.
Starting Small: The Lightweight Bet Approach
Tomorrow partnerships don’t need to start as heavy lifts. Some of the best begin with:
Limited product integration – One feature, one use case, minimal engineering time
Co-marketing experiment – Joint content, shared webinar, cross-promotional email
Data-sharing pilot – Small-scale analytics or insights exchange to test mutual value
Sandbox partnership – Closed beta with select customers before broader rollout
The goal isn’t to ink a massive partnership contract on day one — it’s to learn, build relationships, and position yourself for when the market tips.
The Long Game
Your biggest competitive advantages often come from partnerships you start before anyone else sees the opportunity.
The companies winning at Tomorrow bets aren’t necessarily the smartest at picking winners — they’re the most systematic at placing small, smart bets across multiple possibilities, then scaling quickly when something shows clear momentum.
Your Track 1 partnerships fund these experiments. Your Track 2 partnerships position you for the next wave of Track 1 opportunities.
Which Tomorrow bets are you watching most closely? Have you used frameworks like the 2×2 matrix to prioritize partnership opportunities? Share your approach in the comments.
If you’re finding this series helpful, hit subscribe. Next week: The metrics that actually matter for each track — and why most partnership teams are measuring the wrong things entirely.